Ukraine Conflict Notes

Ukraine Conflict Notes

Updated May 20, 13.10lt

Titled Timeline

Peace Talks

19 May – Ukrainian and Russian officials have said that negotiations between the two countries have stagnated.

13 May – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said, “We are ready for talks. However, we are not ready to accept Russian ultimatums”.

28 April – Principally, civilians are free to exit Azovstal.

26 April – U.N. chief discussed evacuation plan of Mariupol, in Moscow.

24 April – Guterres to visit Ankara on 25th, Moscow on 26th and Kiev on 28th.

20 April – A draft document  containing clearly-worded proposals  was sent to Kiev on April 15.

14 April – Draft of a “peace treaty” is needed for further talks in Belarus.

13 April -“Dead end” situation for peace talks.

5 April   – Peace talks may be off the table.

1 April   – Istanbul meeting is believed to be a “meaningful momentum”.

30 March – Positive reactions are felt between neighbors.

29 March – Negotiations begin in İstanbul.

22 March – Ukraine’s neautrality versus withdrawal is the critical issue.

17 March – Virtual talks continue.

12 March – Negotiations with the RF delegation are now ongoing in a continuous video format, tweeted Podolyak.

10 March – Foreign Ministers met, prior to Antalya Diplomacy Forum.

7 March – Third meeting of Peace Talks held.

3 March – Second round of talks.

28 February- Peace talks commence.

Repatriation and Refugees

17 May – Azovstal evacuated.

16 May – Some Azovstal soldiers were evacuated overnight.

13 May –  In the first five weeks, more than four million refugees from Ukraine crossed borders into neighbouring countries, and many more have been forced to move inside the country. And refugees fleeing Ukraine is more than six million but entering Ukranians are 1.6 million.

https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

28 April – Principally, civilians are free to exit Azovstal.

28 April – 130,000 – 140,000 civilians might have used the humanitarian corridors in Mariupol.

14 April – Ukraine says nine humanitarian corridors agreed with Russian forces.          

31 March – A humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, would be opened from 10am (0700 GMT) on Thursday, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

29 March – United Nations says four million people have left Ukraine.

24 March – United Nations advises more than ten million Ukranians fled or displaced.

17 March – United Nations advises more than three million Ukranians fled.

11 March – IMO statement, after extraordinary Council Session (c/ES.35) Blue Safe Corridor, and Proposal to Support Seafarers were important items of the Statement.

https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/ECSStatement.aspx

9 March – First families of Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA) staff  members from Ukraine arrived in Hamburg.

4 March – Turkish General Directorate of Maritime coordinates further rescue of 173  crew members of total 199.

1 March – Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG  (HHLA) terminals in Hamburg no longer handle the containers to come from or to go to Russia.

15 February- US Embassy to Ukraine in Kiev to be suspended as of Sunday, February 20.

Sanctions

17 May – Mr Erdoğan said Swedish and Finnish delegations should not bother going to Ankara, Türkiye’s capital, to convince it to approve their Nato bid.

16 May – EU unable to agree on sixth package of sanctions as Budapest continues to block proposed oil embargo.

16 May –  Germany plans to stop importing Russian oil by the end of the year even if the European Union fails to agree on an EU-wide ban in its next set of sanctions, government officials said.

11 May – Moscow listed Gazprom Germania and dozens of its subsidiary companies in a new sanctions designation published on a government website as a response to EU measures against Russia.

11 May – Ukraine halts some Russian gas flows to Europe.

6 May – The European Union is planning to fully embargo Russian oil within nine months, with the Sixth Sanction Package under discussion.

6 May – G7 leaders to discuss potential new sanctions on Russia.

28 April – Biden works on proposals to establish new authorities for the forfeiture of property linked to Russian kleptocracy, allow the government to use the proceeds to support Ukraine, and further strengthen related law enforcement tools. 

21 April – Biden announces, “… no ship that sails under the Russian flag or that is owned or operated by a Russian entity, will be allowed to dock in United States ports or access our shores.”

13 April – Some P&I Clubs continue coverage on Sovcomflot ships.

8 April – EU agrees on fifth package of restrictive measures,  including bans on the import of  coal (effective from the second week of August), wood, timber, chemicals, cement, vodka and other products and prevention of many Russian vessels and trucks from accessing the EU.

7 April     –      UN suspends Russia’s Human Rights Council membership.

1 April     –      Japan imposes sanctions on some Russian companies and citizens.

24 March – United States sanctions over 400 Russian elites, Duma members, and defense companies in coordination with the European Union and G7; U.S. has now sanctioned over 600 targets.

22 March – Russia flagged yachts flee European ports to international waters and to the East.

15 March –  EU agrees on fourth package of restrictive measures.

11 March – Consolidated List of Financial Sanctions Targets in the UK, list updated by HM Treasury, (590 persons and entities including some financial ones)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1060262/Russia.pdf

8 March – President Biden’s Executive Order, prohibiting the importation of products of Russian Federation origin: namely, crude oil; petroleum;  petroleum fuels, oils, and products of their distillation; liquefied    natural gas; coal; and coal products and,

                        – new investment in the energy sector in the Russian Federation by      a United States person, wherever located and,

                        – any approval, financing, facilitation, or guarantee by a United States person, wherever located, of a transaction by a foreign person where the transaction by that foreign person would be   prohibited by this section if performed by a United States person or within the United States.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential- actions/2022/03/08/executive-order-on-prohibiting-certain-imports- and-new-investments-with-respect-to-continued-russian-federation- efforts-to-undermine-the-sovereignty-and-territorial-integrity-of-ukraine/

4 March – Financial Times recaps Russia sanctions list: What the West imposed over the Ukraine invasion. https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ce193-ab7d-4449-ac1b-751d49b1aaf8

26 February – EU talked on Russian banks being banned from Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT, named after the Belgian group that runs it) messaging system.

25 February- EU restrictions activated on Russia.  (Effected sectors : Defence, Energy and Aviation.) For 140 pages of EU Council Regulation (EU) 2022/328 :
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32022R0328&from=EN
For more sanctions, see https://www.europeansanctions.com/news/country/russia/

Insurance Related

27 April – Some P&I Clubs confirm Sovcomflot cancellations.

13 April   – Some P&I Clubs continue coverage on Sovcomflot ships.

7 April     –  BIMCO advises that Conwartime and Voywar clauses do not apply outside conflict  zone, despite Joint War Committee decision to declare all Russian ports listed areas.

5 April     –   War risk premium is less than ten percent now.

4 April     –   Joint War Committee amended JWC Listed Areas (now JWLA-030)

31 March – P&I Clubs start to pull cover from Sovcomflot ships.

23 March – Some insurance coverage attained for steel cargoes traded intra Black Sea.

11 March – IACS Council withdraws Russian Register’s Membership of IACS.

11 March – Double-digit war risk premium is now heard of. 

10 March – Class Society Lloyd’s Register says it is withdrawing services to Russia.

7 March – Joint War Committee amended JWC Listed Areas (now JWLA-029)

Sea Trade

18 May – Andrey Stavnitser, the owner of Ukraine’s largest private shipping-terminal operator, TransInvestService, says that Ukrainian grain silos are largely full, and there is not enough room for this year’s crop. “If we can’t store it, it will start rotting,” he says. (The Economist)

28 April – Reni, İzmail and Ust-Dunaysk are operational ports of Ukraine, agents report.

28 April – Ship-to-ship transfer of Russian tanker is blocked off Malta.

15 April – Crude tanker with former Russian owner, detained in Greece.

6 April     –      Fourth sea mine in Turkish Black Sea coast deactivated.

5 April     –      m/v Azburg sinks in Mariupol.

1 April     –      Russian tankers are believed to be masking location data.

1 April     –      Glencore halts new Russia deals.

31 March –     Euronav suspends operations with Russian customers.

28 March – Another floating mine deactivated, 45 nautical miles (nm) offshore Romania.

28 March – Second floating mine deactivated, Turkish Black Sea coast, close to Bulgarian border.

26 March – Fishing boats not allowed to sail due to stray floating mine risks. First one deactivated close to Bosphorus north entrance.

25 March – Hundreds of vessels and the crew stuck in Black Sea ports run low on supplies.

24 March – For the exit of 67 foreign ships, from 15 countries, TASS reports a humanitarian corridor from the assembly area located 20 nautical miles (nm) south-east of Ilyichevsk port is 80 nm long in the south-western direction, and three nm wide. The corridor is supposed to be open daily between 08.00 – 19.00 Moscow time starting from March 25.

15 March – Sanction clause from BIMCO available, extracted from GENCOA 2022, a free-standing provision for use in COAs.

12 March –  Novorossiysk port is working.

12 March – Turkish vegoil tanker coming from Azov sea passed the Straits.

12 March – Turkish Straits have more than 500 ships in the traffic system daily.

12 March – Crew repatriations continue.

10 March – Russian vessels transit Kerch Strait.

3 March –  m/v Helt, sank near Odessa.

2 March – m/v Banglar Samriddhi, hit by a missile at  anchor at Oktyabrsk.

28 February- Sea of Azov is currently closed to traffic.

24 February- m/v Yasa Jupiter sustained minor damage to bridge off Odessa.

++

May 20 – Türkiye’s opposition to NATO joiners may lead to historical changes, like Europe’s setting up its on Army eventually but it will take time, like the dilemna does. Ukranian soldiers evacuated fom Azovstal, Mariupol, now the focus will shift West. Commercial and military exchange of stocks will continue, until we hear (something like) an oil for food programme is developed.  Overcoming potential crisis will surely require strong diplomacy soon.

May 13 – Companies leaving Russian market, will make everything but everything more expensive, signalling return to normal will take years.

If Ukraine was to export grain again, will one be able to send a ship without insurance coverage?

Oil movement stopped then, what is the alternative to no oil from Russia. Supplying at a higher rate from others?

Even though Nord Stream 1 line is still active (and line 2 already dead), gas prices will hike up after Ukraine halting transit gas and Russia sanctioning parties afterwards.  Guess no gas will flow, until new payment mechanism is agreed upon (until end May).

Finland’s intention to apply to join NATO already left them gas-less, and Sweden sees that.

Technology has its say. You can manipulate targets, using signals but what if you block signals for good? Already difficult life for some will be more difficult sooner than the coming winter.

May 6 – After two months, seems the shock is partially absorbed and everyone working on alternatives to survive. Sixth Sanction Package will be disclosed soon with a gradual ban on Russian oil which will move oil prices up and bring more alliance in the East.

How saddening to see that it is a race to get rid of old technology in the arsenal.

April 29 – Bosphorus to Black Sea Passage : Around 100 ships per day enter into Black Sea. The traffic seems to stabilize at this level.

River ports of Ukraine,  Reni and İzmail at the entrance of Tuna via Sulina channel, and Ust-Dunaysk

are operating and limited operations continue at others. This may mean, West Black Sea sea traffic found ways to breathe.

Assets of some Russians are frozen, as the result of the sanctions. Now the idea to sell those assets to support Ukraine would be difficult to comprehend for the ones wishing for the peace.

April 22 – Bosphorus traffic volume has not changed much, meaning local owners get used to the crisis after two months. Believe Mariupol will be the initiator of the next phase.

April 15- Bosphorus to Black Sea passage was around 90 ships per day, down from 110 ships a week ago and 154 ships three weeks ago.

Seems, Boris Johnson’s on 9th and others’ Kiev visits, announced artillery support package to Ukraine on 13th, active fighting in Mariupol reported on 13th and loss of the cruiser, Moskva (121) on 14th, point us away from the peace.

April 8 – Bosphorus to Black Sea passage is again 110 ships on average daily. Two weeks ago it was 154 ships daily.

Floating mine peril is still there, the number of deactivated mines is up to four now. Should the Straits be closed for tanker passages for some time?

Today’s sanctions, equivalent of 3-5 billion dollars on coal and say total about 10 billion dollars, compared to roughly 350 billion dollars of oil and gas income annually, is a drop in the bucket.

And sanctions are (carrying) coals to Newcastle in a global world.

April 1 – Bosphorus to Black Sea passage is now 110 ships on average daily. About 40 percent week on week decrease. Recent passages are highly decreasing. Now, the traffic is getting notably less in Black Sea, due to sanctions and major operators replanning their trades.

March 31 – Weekly average number of ships passing Bosphorus to Black sea is now 178. (Daily increase is 24 ships on average). Straits traffic is getting crowded. Possible floating mines gossip is not scaring owners, but increasing freight levels. Small insurance companies popping up, some insurers  (and traders) will have to (theoretically) accept no name coverage to let the propellers turn.

It is very difficult to restrict trade in a global world. When one is in need of the product, there is always a way.

Remembering Hünkâr İskelesi Treaty, scanning through the  profound work, Montreux Straits Conference, Minutes and Documents, of late Prof. Seha Lütfü Meray and  late diplomat Osman Olcay (ex-vice secratary general of NATO), – valuable people – on the convention regarding the regime of the straits signed at Montreux. One can not stop asking the question(s), does history repeat itself or does it rhyme?

Nazım Karadağ

May 13, 2022, Istanbul

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